Impacts of the LA Fires: Setting the Context for Recovery

A Data-Driven Perspective on Recovery and Resilience

The recent wildfires across Los Angeles County have left a path of devastation, impacting tens of thousands of people and leaving communities grappling with the loss of homes, businesses, and vital infrastructure. Effective recovery requires a comprehensive understanding of the damage and its impact on residents amid the intertwined challenges of increasing climate risk, a housing supply and affordability crisis, and a property insurance market on the brink.

The scale of the disaster makes clear that a resilient recovery will depend on coordination across a multitude of agencies and jurisdictions. Local, state, and federal resources will need to be aligned, as will policy implementation. It is essential that stakeholders and decision-makers be informed by a thorough assessment of conditions before the fires, the fires’ impacts, and ongoing risk factors. With this post we bring forward a selection of key insights that provide context as to the critical challenges that will face communities in planning for a sustainable, resilient recovery.

Key Data to Support Recovery Planning

We’ll delve into some core impacts of the fires – including impacts to housing, damages to schools and infrastructure, commercial impacts and tax revenue disruptions, and exposure of community vulnerability – to highlight the scope of challenges that will need to be addressed through the stages of recovery planning to come. 

Homes and Households Affected

Understanding the scope of damage to homes and the displacement of residents is paramount. Within the perimeters of the Palisades, Eaton, Kenneth, Hurst, and Lidia fires in Los Angeles County, there were over 18,600 homes and 45,000 residents, with many more in the surrounding evacuation areas. Subsequent structural damage assessments by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) as to the extent of damage to individual buildings, and their construction characteristics, serve to inform recovery efforts and future changes to building codes and wildfire mitigation. Over 12,000 homes have been destroyed, with far-reaching impacts not only for their residents, but for residents of surviving homes, their communities, local jurisdictions, the region, and the state.

The already-severe housing shortage and ongoing hazard risk in much of the region and state exacerbates the challenge for displaced households to find safe and affordable housing. Fire victims may face housing insecurity even with the potential support of housing assistance coming from FEMA or through state or local channels. Unquestionably, it will be difficult for many to stay in their communities, and if they are homeowners, rebuild.

State Actions and Insurance Context

A series of executive orders issued by Governor Newsom are aimed at accelerating housing recovery. To expedite reconstruction, state permitting and review requirements are being suspended in the affected areas.¹ The state will also support local governments in developing temporary housing plans; allow for fast-tracking of temporary housing construction, including the development of accessory dwelling units (ADUs); and allow for the placement of trailers on affected properties.² Households will still be at risk of lengthy or permanent displacement given the time and resources it takes to rebuild, though.

Insurance costs are likely to be untenable for many, with insurers not renewing policies or pulling out of the market completely, leaving homeowners with the state’s FAIR plan as their option of last resort. State law mandates a moratorium on cancellations or non-renewals of home insurance policies within or adjacent to a fire perimeter for one year after a declared state of emergency³, but costs going forward could be prohibitive.

It’s apparent that broader policy solutions are needed to tackle the challenges of public safety and affordable housing supply in the context of the larger and more frequent disasters being fueled by climate change. Local preparedness for disasters and recovery planning that is responsive to community needs and mitigates future risk are also essential for long-term safety and resilience. All actions going forward will benefit from a deep understanding of the impacts from the latest fires.

Key Data Points

• Over 45,000 residents and 18,600 homes are located within the fire perimeters.
• Structure damage assessment for the Eaton and Palisades fire areas indicate that over 11,000 single family homes, 241 multifamily buildings containing 805 homes, and 373 mobile homes were destroyed.⁴
• The fire areas encompass homes across several cities – Los Angeles (including Pacific Palisades), Malibu, Pasadena, Sierra Madre, Arcadia, and Calabasas – plus the communities of Altadena and Topanga and other unincorporated county areas.
• Nearly 80% of the homes in the fire areas are owner-occupied and 20% are rented. According to Census Household Pulse Survey data, renters are likely to be displaced for longer after a natural disaster, with a higher likelihood of permanent displacement.
• The assessed values of homes in the affected areas exceed $23.5 billion, with considerable variation across the impacted areas (a $2.3 million average value in the Palisades Fire area compared to $640k in the Eaton Fire area). These assessed values are far short of market values.
• In zip codes touched by the fires across the county, there were over 38,800 non-renewals of home insurance policies from 2020 to 2023 – on average, a rate of 9.5% of policies not renewed each year.⁵

Data on homes and households are necessary to mobilize disaster response, administer resources, and guide post-disaster planning efforts. A 2024 report to Congress by the HUD Office of Policy Development and Research about “housing turnover” – the involuntary loss of housing due to evictions, foreclosures, or natural disasters – makes the case that better data on post-disaster displacement and the characteristics of displaced households would “aid policymakers in making decisions regarding allocating resources, anticipating needs for emergency assistance, and evaluating disaster response efforts.”⁶ Progress is being made with the Census Household Pulse Survey, which was created during the COVID-19 pandemic to measure household experiences of unemployment, food insecurity, housing insecurity, and other hardship in real time; as of this year, the survey is being relaunched as the ongoing Household Trends and Outlook Pulse Survey (HTOPS). These and other data that can illuminate the longitudinal impacts of disasters on communities, housing supply, and housing security should be used in planning and decision-making going forward.

Infrastructure Impacts

The fires have also wrought damages on roads and power, water, sewer, and broadband infrastructure, affecting households in the fire areas and beyond. Near-term restoration of services, where possible, and the reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure will involve efforts by a number of utilities, municipal agencies, and other service providers. Coordination across entities for different infrastructure components could increase cost efficiency, while phasing reconstruction in alignment with the rebuilding of homes and businesses can facilitate community recovery.

The overlapping service areas of providers across the county may pose challenges to coordination, though. In terms of water and sewer service, the fires have affected residents served by at least 15 city and regional agencies and special districts, including seven in the area of the Eaton Fire. Water lines and pump stations have been damaged and reservoirs have been contaminated, causing at least seven districts in the county to issue do-not-use or do-not-drink water advisories.⁷ All will need to be involved in recovery.

Impacts on Schools and Students

Schools and school districts within the fire perimeters and surrounding communities are being impacted by direct damages to school buildings as well as the displacement of students, teachers, and staff whose homes have been affected. The fire-affected communities are served primarily by two public school districts (Los Angeles Unified and Pasadena Unified) but the county is home to many more, potentially adding to the challenge of accommodating displaced students and planning for school reconstruction. Right after the fires, the governor issued an executive order to facilitate the enrollment of displaced students in other school districts, make it easier to use temporary facilities, and to provide support for schools to recover from the damage.⁸ Many private schools have also been affected and may be challenged in their recovery.

Key Data Points

• Nine public K-12 schools within the fire perimeters – 6 elementary, 1 middle, and 2 high schools – had a combined enrollment of 5,300 students.
• At least 10 private K-12 schools had a combined enrollment of over 1,400 students.
• Over 30% of the students in the public schools were eligible for free or reduced-price lunches, highlighting the potential of compounded challenges for low-income families.
• Eight public schools and at least five private schools have been destroyed or experienced major damage.

Employment and Business Impacts

The fires have directly affected businesses and employees, which will in turn impact the local economy through lost tax revenues. In the near term, displaced residents may face challenges in commuting to work from temporary housing locations, while employees of affected businesses may also lose their jobs.

Businesses may be impacted in multiple ways. Some commercial properties were directly damaged or destroyed, while those without damage may be threatened by the displacement of residents who comprise their customer base. Recovery of local-serving businesses, in particular, may only occur incrementally as residential reconstruction takes place.

Key Data Points

• Over 8,000 jobs were located in the fire perimeters, with 2,600 in the retail sector; 2,200 in the office sector; and 1,600 in education, healthcare, or social services. About 45% of the jobs paid less than $40k per year.⁹
• Over 450 commercial buildings were located in the fire perimeters, comprising over 1.5 million square feet of floorspace.
• Structure damage assessment for the Eaton and Palisades fires indicate that 208 commercial buildings were destroyed while another 15 suffered damages of at least 10%. A further 47 were structurally affected in some way.

Impact on Local Tax Revenues

The damage and destruction of residential and commercial properties also poses fiscal challenges to local jurisdictions and school districts in the form of lost tax revenues. In California, temporary property tax relief is available for disaster-affected properties with over $10,000 in market-value damages. Relief applies to the taxes on the assessed value of improvements only (not land). Based on past revenues and property values, we can estimate the revenues that jurisdictions stand to lose until homes and businesses are rebuilt.

While the vast majority of property tax revenues in the areas affected by the fires come from residential property taxes – over 95% – the loss of commercial properties will also impact sales tax revenues. In considering the combined losses from these sources, the proportion of local budgets that they represent can also be an important factor. In general, economic recovery may be most challenging for smaller jurisdictions for which lost revenues comprise a larger portion of their budget.

Key Data Points

• Residential properties within the fire perimeters have a total assessed value of over $23.5 billion, with annual property taxes of $288 million.
• Commercial properties within the fire perimeters have a total assessed value of over $780 million, with annual property taxes of $9.6 million.
• Approximately 32% of total assessed property value in the fire areas is attributable to the value of improvements.
• Based on structure damage assessment in the Eaton and Palisades fire areas, upwards of $60 million in annual property tax revenues may be lost until homes and businesses are rebuilt, affecting the budgets of cities, the county, and school districts.
• The property tax revenues that may be lost for the fire areas account for 0.3% of total annual property tax revenues in Los Angeles County.
• Local jurisdictions may lose as much as $18 million in annual sales taxes from the 800,000 square feet of retail within the fire perimeters, while the state may lose as much as $31 million.¹⁰

Community Vulnerability

Ensuring an resilient recovery requires a clear picture of the vulnerabilities within affected communities, and those in high-risk areas. Factors such as age, household size, and income can significantly impact residents’ ability to rebuild and recover from a disaster. Countering the risk of permanent displacement will be a major challenge amid the ongoing housing shortage and affordability crisis, which is only exacerbated by the number of households that have lost their homes. 

Recovery planning also poses opportunities to improve the safety and resilience of communities in the face of future disaster risk. An understanding of existing vulnerabilities can help to inform outreach and prioritize near- and longer-term actions. For example, understanding age, health, and vehicle ownership characteristics can inform actions to ensure that people are able to evacuate safely in the future.

Key Data Points

Within the fire perimeters, there are:

• 10,500 (21%) adults over 65
• 7,200 (40%) households with at least one adult over 65
• 11,230 (23%) children under 18
• 5,700 (32%) households with children under 18
• 1,430 (8%) households with incomes below $25k
• 995 (5.5%) households with over 50% rent burden
• Over 4% households with limited English speaking ability
• 42% residents of color or Hispanic and 12% Black residents (61% and 22% in the Eaton Fire area, respectively)

In areas where evacuations were ordered, there are:

• 30,470 (20%) adults over 65
• 20,660 (40%) households with at least one adult over 65
• 32,600 (22%) children under 18
• 16,860 (37%) households with children under 18
• 9.3% population with a disability 
• 3.8% households without access to a vehicle
• Over 6% households with limited English speaking ability

A range of other factors are important in the context of safety and recovery planning. Health factors, environmental hazard exposures, disadvantaged community indicators, walk and transit accessibility times to critical destinations, and more should be evaluated to ensure that community needs are met.

Regional Context

Taken together, the metrics presented here provide necessary context for actions throughout the recovery process – from emergency assistance, to funding requests and allocation, to planning and implementation. The greater Los Angeles area may face particular challenges due to its multitude of jurisdictions and fragmented areas of responsibility by the many various departments and agencies that provide public services and infrastructure. 

Communities, jurisdictions, school districts, and agencies at the local, regional, and state levels will need to coordinate on plans and funding to ensure that communities are able not only to rebuild, but to rebuild with greater resilience to future disasters. Climate change and its impacts on natural hazard risk and the housing market crosses jurisdictional and regional boundaries, so state agencies – including CAL FIRE; the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), which is responsible for coordinating emergency response and mitigating the effects of disasters; the Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation, which supports comprehensive planning across the state; the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), which is focused on access to safe, affordable housing; and others – play important roles. The need for coordinated planning and action applies not only in post-disaster Los Angeles County, but in the many areas throughout the state and country that are at risk or have already been subject to natural disasters. 

A Data-Driven Path to Resilience

The Los Angeles fires of 2025 are unfortunately far from the first and will not be the last disaster to strike. As communities recover, data-driven insights are crucial for prioritizing resources, planning for resilience, and rebuilding sustainably. UrbanFootprint offers data and tools to extract and visualize critical information needed to understand disaster impacts in the context of existing conditions, community characteristics, and future risk, and ultimately help to plan for recovery.

Want to see how UrbanFootprint can help you support recovery and resilience efforts? Contact us or schedule a demo to explore how our data and tools can make a difference in disaster recovery planning.

Footnotes

1. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/01/12/governor-newsom-signs-executive-order-to-help-los-angeles-rebuild-faster-and-stronger/
2. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/01/16/governor-newsom-issues-executive-order-to-fast-track-temporary-housing-for-los-angeles-firestorm-area/
3. https://www.insurance.ca.gov/01-consumers/140-catastrophes/MandatoryOneYearMoratoriumNonRenewals.cfm
4. https://gis.data.cnra.ca.gov/datasets/CALFIRE-Forestry::cal-fire-damage-inspection-dins-data/explore
5. https://www.insurance.ca.gov/01-consumers/200-wrr/DataAnalysisOnWildfiresAndInsurance.cfm
6. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/Housing-Turnover-Report.pdf
7. https://waterforla.lacounty.gov/water-alerts/
8. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/01/14/governor-newsom-signs-executive-order-to-quickly-help-l-a-schools-children-and-families-affected-by-firestorms/
9. U.S. Census Bureau, LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (2022)
10. Estimates of revenue losses are based on an assumed average for retail sales per square foot ($650) and the local portion of sales tax rates in Los Angeles County (3.5%, including the 1% of the state portion returned to local jurisdictions).